Finally it feels like I am back heading in the right direction,a nice £275.27 profit for the weekend and one result off of a bumper payout. The shorter blog didn't hinder the performance and a slight tweak in the way I picked teams was profitable last weekend and also midweek. This weekend I am going for more of the same sort of analysis. If it continues to pay well then I will reveal the things I look for in a few weeks. Burton suffered a one nil defeat at home but the rest of the teams produced good results.
I have now made it to a fifty fifty of NAPS with 14 from 28. I am confident we can make that 15 from 29 this weekend with FA CUP action taking place. There is only one game in the Premier League which I won't be getting involved in.
For horse racing punters there are some good offers around for Cheltenham with bookies offering money back for new and existing customers. The free bets apply to the Tuesday day of Racing. Skybet and William Hill are offering money back as a free bet on all losing bets of the Supreme Novices' (upto £25). Whilst Paddy Power are offering money back as a free bet if Douvan (6/4) wins (upto £50). Paddy Power also offer money back as a free bet if Un de Sceaux (4/7) wins the Arkle (upto £50). All offers apply to the win part of the bet only.
Back to this weekends football. There are only 3 games missing in the Championship and 1 in League 1, so plenty to go at.
FA CUP – I won't be placing any money on the cup this weekend as the Saturday games are tough to call. Liverpool should be too much for Blackburn but at 1/3 the odds are far too short. Manchester United to beat Arsenal on Monday at 6/4 (Bet 365) is the only consideration. Don't go too crazy on it though as it could quite easily be a replay or Arsenal could scrape it (covering all options). If I am thinking like then then it would really only be worth backing at 2/1 or better.
The Championship – I like the look of Forest, at home, to beat Boro at 2/1 (Coral). Freedman has turned the club around but I am not confident enough to put any money on them. Far too tricky a league to be betting in this weekend. There are a few games involving the lower placed teams but the value is just not there. AVOID!
League One – I did consider Port Vale away to Coventry at 23/10 (Bet 365) but I just can't bring myself to go through with it. The fact Port Vale are away and they are not amazing away from home is a big deciding factor. Huge game at the top with MK Dons hosting Preston, get out the three sided dice. Finally we get on to the first bet of the weekend. Sheffield United NAP are at home to Fleetwood and at 8/11 (Coral) I strongly fancy them to take all 3 points. They have lost just one in the last 7 games and whilst they haven't been outstanding they seem to keep nicking results. They were leading until the 88th minute midweek but Posh managed to grab two late goals to snatch victory at 300 to 1 in running.
League Two – This is a tricky league to predict but the value odds are around these parts. With slim pickings in the other leagues this weekend I hope I can unearth some treasures here….. Portsmouth away at 7/5 (Ladbrokes) to Accrington offers reasonable value, but again it is the away team factor which puts me off this one. Luton to beat Morecambe at home is bet number 2. They are odds on at some firms but Bet 365 are offering 11/10. Luton are woeful away but have a good home record. Despite losing 3 from their last 4 these were all on the road. The biggest puzzle for me and some bizarre odds comes from the final game I looked at. Tranmere are even money at home to Dagenham and Redbridge. I just can't see how this can be, it makes Dagenham and Redbridge a mouth watering 16/5 with William Hill. Draw no bet is 2 to 1 (William Hill) and Dagenham or the draw is 17/20 (Betway). I love the price of this game, and the smart money suggests Draw no Bet here.
Sheffield United – £100 – 8/11 with Coral
Luton – £75 – 11/10 with Bet 365
Dagenham and Redbridge, Draw No Bet – £50 – 2/1 with William Hill
£50 Treble (10.71, William Hill) of the above 3
Not too many to go at this weekend but no point picking them for the sake of it, something I may have been slightly guilty of in the past.
Hoping for another profitable week,