10 out of 12 NAPS and £103.75 profit for the weekend. £158.58 up in total. Things are looking up. I also had some extra on Bournemouth in running but I only add to the spreadsheet the bets I post. That way you have total transparency of everything I am doing.
My premier league write up last weekend was on the nose with Arsenal and Chelsea winning and Newcastle beating Liverpool. Sadly I didn't have any courage in my convictions. Championship NAP of Bournemouth came in (just). League one I predicted a tough game for Preston at Rochdale and they lost 3-0. Sadly my Chesterfield mention proved correct about them needing to up their game, letting down the sixfold for over £500. New manager syndrome for Port Vale was a correct prediction too with a 2-1 victory away to Colchester. Sadly the only error came from Sheffield United not being able to get a result in the Yorkshire Derby. Typically they were in my 3 doubles and treble.
So……to this weeks games. It sees the FA Cup first round and the top two divisions in action. I have done well in the past during the FA Cup early games. You get better odds on ht ft and high placed league teams sometimes offer value against lower teams.
The Premier League first bet is a Paddy Power special and I think it offers great value with a nice safety net. The early kick off is Liverpool Vs Chelsea and the Special One's team are 13/10 to beat an out of sorts Liverpool side. Paddy Power are offering money back as a free bet up to £50 on W/D/W bets if the match ends in a draw. I would expect the odds to be lower because of this offer but they are best priced. I am all over this and have had the maximum £50 on Chelsea. The two obvious choices are Man Utd and Southampton but they offer less than an even money double so I will be leaving this one. I don't expect many goals in the Premier League this weekend and expect a few draws. I will just be having the Paddy Power special in The Premier League this weekend.
Championship important fixtures see 3rd Vs 5th and 4th Vs 6th. Only Reading and Leeds are the odds on teams, Leeds odds on?! They are at home to Blackpool and this is probably the only fixture that would see them odds on. It still won't be a game I am involved in. In fact, it won't be a league I am involved in due to the fact that all fixtures should be quite tight.
So to the FA Cup fixtures. There are bound to be a few upsets, I just hope I am not on the receiving end of one. I have been looking round for value and this is what I have found. My Blog this week is slightly strange, I am giving you a bit of advice on what games might be best to avoid and not necessarily the teams to back.
Bury Vs Hemel Hempstead, Bury were knocked out last year to non-league opposition and hopefully they won't end up on the losing end again. They are doing well in League Two and HH are struggling in the Conference South. Odds of 2/7 are not great but 4/5 (Boylesports) HT/FT offers value. Dagenham Vs Southport could be the shock of the round and 5/1 for Southport offers a bit of value. Dagenham are struggling in Division Two with just one victory in six. I did toy with Luton to beat Newport County at 23/20 (Hills) but Newport are on a great run so I will avoid this one. Mansfield are at home to Concord Rangers and can't buy a win at the minute. Concord Rangers have the young Arsenal keeper on loan, Josh Vickers. 2/5 is too short for me. Plymouth unbeaten at home in 9 and are up against a strong non-league team who have lost one in the last 10 and won 9, again a price of 4/9 for Plymouth (Hills) is too short. Southend Vs Chester is my second tip. Chester are mid table but closer to the bottom than the top. Southend at 2/5 (Ladbrokes) is again too short but 21/20 HT/FT (Boylesports) will be my bet in this one. Southend aren't in the best of form but should have enough in this one and are my NAP (albeit slightly reluctantly).
In all honesty, despite recent cup betting success, I am not overly confident about this weekend.
My Bets
Chelsea £50 Paddy Power 13/10
Bury HT/FT £50 Boylesports 4/5
Southend HT/FT £50 Boylesports 21/20
The HT/FT double pays 3.69 but I will avoid it this week…..I think we know the script.
Tread carefully this week. Many games that could go either way.
