A disappointing weekend last weekend with confidence, money and prices all affecting my decisions. A loss of £125 despite tipping several big price winners. It was the prices that had an effect on my staking and the bets I placed. This is always a big hurdle to get over. Having courage in your convictions is key. NAPS are now 14 out of 29. With the bigger prices you need to get less right each time to be in profit. You only need 1 out of 3 picks at 2 to 1 to break even, last weekend I tipped Forest (2/1), Port Vale (23/10) and Dagenham (16/5) and I only backed one of them and that was as Draw No Bet. 🙁
This week I will just continue looking for value and bet with what I think rather than letting the pries put me off.
Premier League – There are only 6 games this week in The Premier League and nothing tickles my fancy on the Saturday. Sunday pits Chelsea against Southampton and I fancy them to bounce back from their PSG disaster but at just 8/13 (Bet 365) I can't be placing money on them. Man Utd are also 19/20 (William Hill) at home to Spurs and anyone who takes this price needs their head looking at, awful price. Paddy Power are offering a free £25 bet in running if you place a £25 pre match bet. It is worth having this but my money will not be on Man Utd. The Monday game offers similar shocking value for Liverpool who are 21/20 (William Hill) away to Swansea. Nothing on the Premier League this week.
The Championship – The early kick off pits Middlesbrough NAP against Ipswich. Boro have a great home record and matched by Ipswich's poor away form I like the look of a home victory. Boro like to leave it late so it may be close but 10/11 for Boro is a nice price (William Hill). Birmingham Vs Huddersfield was another home win that tempted me and at 5/4 (Victor) it is a very tempting price but something is steering me away from it. Charlton are 12/5 (Bet365) at home to Blackburn. Blackburn leak goals and Charlton are free scoring so I think the price is excellent. For the more cautious, draw no bet is still a great 11/10 (Paddy Power).
League One – Port Vale at home to Swindon are 100/30 (Boyle), Port Vale or Draw 10/11 (Bet365) and 2/1 for Draw No Bet (most firms). Port Vale had a recent set back at home to Oldham but I think the price makes this worth while. Preston are rampant and should walk over Crewe but 2/5 (Bet 365) is not enough to tempt me. I like the look of MK Dons away to Walsall as I don't see them losing 3 on the trot 13/10 (Sporting Bet) is a tempting price. The 13/10 is a good price as they are as short as 11/10 with a lot of firms.
League Two – Burton at 20/23 (Boyle Sports) at home to Accrington. Burton have something to prove after their recent one nil defeat to Accrington on the road. They are top of the league but a defeat today could see them slip to third, I can't see Jimmy Floyd allowing that to happen. Northampton are at home to Tranmere and at 23/20 (William Hill) I see this as a great price, I seem to back against Tranmere a lot but this is not a vendetta.
Middlesbrough – 10/11 – £100 (William Hill)
Charlton, Draw no Bet – 11/10 – £50 (Paddy Power)
Port Vale or Draw – 10/11 – £50 (Bet365)
MK Dons – 13/10 – £25 (Sporting Bet)
Burton – 20/23 – £75 – 20/23 (Boyle Sports)
Northampton – 23/20 – £75 – (William Hill)
Lucky 15, Doubles, Trebles and Fourfold 15 bets @ £2.50 (Boyle Sports) All straight wins Charlton, MK Dons, Burton, Northampton – returns £275.33
Lucky 15, Doubles, Trebles and Fourfold 15 bets @ £2.50 (Boyle Sports) All straight wins Charlton, Port Vale, Burton, Northampton – returns £467.90
Trebles, Fourfold and Acca 16 bets @ £2.50 (Boyle Sports) The above except Boro – returns £487.56
Here is to a joyous Saturday. All the Best.