£2725.76 Profit LAST WEEKEND. That means £2643.84 profit since we embarked on the journey in August. I have been saying week after week that it just needed one to drop and it would be happy days. My profits and losses had been floating around the even mark for a while so I wasn't too concerned. There have been a few weeks where I was just one goal off big payouts. Hunting for the value is key as you don't need as many winners. I am not a fan of 5 team accas that pay only 8 to 1, there is no value in it. Strangely it was the only odds on shot that left me sweating until the 86th minute. Swindon were the last time to take a lead and QPR my NAP were the other team that left me sweating. It is 11 from 16 NAPS now, which I would like to improve on. However, nearly all the NAPS are around even money or better so it isn't too disastrous. Quite an easy write up on last weekends results as I nailed all 6 of them. I also tipped Man Utd and Chelsea but the price of 1.86 was no value to me, good job as Sunderland held Chelsea to a nil nil draw. One of my reality bets exited the jungle in shock fashion. Bullard was 20 to 1 to leave first, just shortly before he went. I have to rely on my 16 to 1 shot of Jake to net me £480. He is now even money favourite.
So to this week. It would be easy to go Gung-ho or rest on my laurels. Earning money from gambling has to be done with discipline and I will not let last weekends win influence any decisions I make this week. I will take it as a normal week and not alter my betting strategy. What will affect things is the fact that it is the FA Cup.
Premier League – The only value I can see in the Premier League on Saturday is QPR. This decision is not made with any sentiment through the fact they served me well last weekend. They face a Burnley team at home. QPR have a good home record but abysmal way record. However, Burnley are unbeaten in 4 so it is not a game I have lots of confidence in, especially considering QPR scraped past a poor Leicester team, albeit scoring 3. In summary, I wouldn't urge against backing QPR at 11/10 (Paddy) but I would tread with some trepidation. The value may lie in the Sunday games with Villa unbeaten in 4 against Leicester who have not won in 9. Villa 7/5 (Victor) are a great price and I fancy them to be triumphant. West Ham at home at 7/5 (Stan James) is also a price not to be sniffed at, although West Ham and their opponents, Swansea, are both unpredictable teams and this game could go either way. I will avoid this fixture but the price is good, saying that 9/4 (Victor) for the Swans is a great price too.
Championship – This is where my NAP lays. Cardiff 10/11 (Bet 365) to beat a shocking Rotherham side. Cardiff have the second best home record in the league and Rotherham have one of the worst. On top of this Cardiff are on form and Rotherham are having a shocker. They have 4 new loan signings that just don't seem to gel and Evans made 7 changes the other week. He is an eccentric fellow and seems to be out of his depth in this league. I cannot spot any other stand out fixtures in this league. Cardiff's new boss on the other hand has produced some good results since his stint in charge. I fully expect Cardiff to be runaway winners in this one. Hopefully Cardiff can take my NAP record t 12 from 17.
FA Cup – A strange set up with 9 games on Saturday and 10 on the Sunday. As I like to be transparent with my bets I didn't put my Sunday wins on the spreadsheet from FA Cup Round 1. I had a stinker on the tips but Chesterfield HT FT and Preston HT FT came in for great prices. I will be looking out for value straight but also some HT FT bets. Accrington at 11/5(Bet 365) at home to Yeovil offers fantastic value. Whilst they play in different divisions I think the price is incorrect here. Accrington have won 4 out of their last 5 home games and Yeovil have lost 4 of their last 6 away games. MK Dons is the only other fixture on Saturday that floats my boat. MK kick teams off the park and they will be keen to progress to the third round by kicking Chesterfield in to touch. 20/23 (Victor) for MK is a steady enough price and when combined with Cardiff it makes it even more appealing. MK have already beaten Chesterfield this season and Chesterfield have only won once in the last 9 away games. Bristol City Vs Telford was a potential HT FT for Bristol but 8/13 (Paddy) is too short for me. The best opportunity for these best is during Round 1. There is one opportunity for this bet though, in the form of Scunthorpe to beat Worcester. Worcester were triumphant away to 10 man Coventry in the first round. I can't see them emulating that feat against Scunthorpe though. Scunthorpe HT FT is even money at Paddy Power and I will be having some of that.
I can't be basking in my glory and I have to think about this weeks bets with last weeks win at the back of my mind.
MY BETS
QPR to win 11/10 (Paddy) £75
Aston Villa 7/5 (Victor) £100
Cardiff to win 10/11 (Bet 365) £150
Accrington to win 11/5 (Bet 365) £25
MK Dons to win 20/23 (Victor) £75
Scunthorpe HT FT Evens (Paddy) £50
Cardiff and MK Dons double 3.53 (Bet 365) £50
I know I may be contradicting myself with my previous write ups but it would be rude not to perm the above in the same bets and stake as last week six fold, fivefolds, fourfolds and trebles in £2.50 42 bets. It could be tense going into Sunday. 🙂 The six fold pays 102.58 at William Hill.
Good Luck 🙂
