What a weekend last weekend turned out to be. Sadly not in betting terms and profit, but more in terms of upsets. Some crazy odds on the weekend games and bookies must have been laughing. Some of the long odds I wouldn't have taken pre-kick off even with a zero on the end of them. Maybe the gap is shortening between The Premier League and the leagues below. It certainly seems very disproportionate considering the difference in wages. I agree with Jose when he says it is a disgrace.
Another let down on the NAP front making 13 from 25. Yet another loss, this time £67.50. Ray reckons it's all about the in-play. I reckon it's all about making profit in the long term. 2 single wins out of 7 is just not good enough, despite both games being odds against. We have had to dust ourselves down before, and we will have to do it again, but speculate to accumulate. WBA came good but Tranmere could only draw, and by the sounds of things they were lucky to get that. Liverpool's inconsistent season continues and they could only muster up a nil nil draw against Bolton.
Let's see if we can do better this weekend…..
The Premier League – Palace at even money (BetFred) to beat The Premier League's worst from team, Everton, seems a very good price and worth a consideration. I will certainly be avoiding Liverpool at home to West Ham at 4/6 (BoyleSports) as it offers no value at all, despite the fact they have lost only once in 17 games (Man Utd 3-0) in 90mins. WBA at home to beat Spurs seems promising at a fantastic price of 21/10 (Ladbrokes), maybe I am getting sucked in by the Pulis factor again, although it worked last week. I think the price is too good to refuse. The late kick off sees Chelsea hosting Man City, with both teams having a point to prove after losingin the FA Cup. In the interim Chelsea have managed to reach the final of the Capital One Cup and they will have their tails up. Man City will fall even further behind if they don't produce a victory, but recent games suggest they haven't got enough in their locker. I can't see them getting anything from the game and Chelsea at 19/20 (Bet365) is well worth a nibble but tread with some caution due to Costa's 3 match suspension.
The Championship – Birmingham Vs Norwich is another game that offers good value for the home team. You can get 5/2 (Ladbrokes) and I feel this is very high. Birmingham seem revitalised and have lost only 1 in 7 (against Derby), drawing their last two makes it slightly cautious though. Also Birmingham haven't won any of their last 7 against Norwich so I guess it's the proverbial bogey team. Ipswich NAP will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to Brighton last weekend. They are 4/5 (Stan James) at home to Wigan, who are languishing near the foot of the table. Ipswich have won 5 out of their last 6 home games, with their only home defeat coming against Derby. I can certainly see them extended that record to 6 from 7. I would have expected Ipswich to be 4/6 so I consider the price good value despite being odds on.
League One – A very tough set of fixtures in League One this week. A good indicator of this is looking at the prices of the home teams. There are very few games that see home teams as odds on and the two lowest priced teams are MK Dons and Preston, who are both away.
League Two – This is the league which will see most of the action and value this weekend. Burton are 7/5 (Stan James) at home to beat Bury. Bury do have a tendency to perform better against the higher placed teams though and Burton have drawn their last 2. Both teams are highly placed and in contention for promotion. It is not one to go crazy on but it is worth a consideration. Southend 4/5 (BetFred) Vs York, Southend are on fire and I see no reason to suggest why their run won't continue. York are a tricky team to break down though and I don't see it being a walk over, a goal might be enough for Southend or they may nick it by two. Stevenage 5/4 (Stan James) are at home to Oxford and I fancy them to bounce back from their recent defeat to Shrewsbury. I can see no other result here than a Stevenage victory, this game was close to being my NAP. Oxford have only won one in their last six and I can see that statistic becoming one in seven. The final games sees Wycombe Vs Portsmouth. Despite being top they have only won 2 of their last 7 games with 5 draws. They don't win by more than one goal very often but the poor form of an 18th placed Portsmouth make the 37/40 (BetVictor) price a good one. Portsmouth have lost 5 and drawn 3 in their last 8. The lack of comfortable victories, despite being top, puts me off having a larger bet on Wycombe, but they are certainly worth wager.
Far more teams who I like the look of this week, The past two weeks have been sparse. It is now a case of picking the right bets and values to maximise profit……..
MY BETS
Ipswich Vs Brighton – £100 Ipswich 4/5 Stan James
Southend Vs York – £50 Southend 4/5 BetFred
Stevenage Vs Oxford – £75 Stevenage 5/4 Stan James
Doubles and Trebles on the above 4 bets at £25 each (7.78 for the treble with Hills)
I will have a cheeky punt on shooting for the moon too and having 7 of the 9 highlighted teams above (betting without Chelsea and Birmingham). It is 271.89 for the 7 fold with William Hill. I will perm the bet as 21 fivefolds, 7 sixfolds and 1 sevenfold. 29 bets at £2.50 each.
I am confident about the singles, doubles and trebles this week and see it as the best week for the punter in a while.
All the best. Good Luck.
