Another profitable weekend with £122.50 profit. Mainly thanks to big Phil Taylor. It was the International games last weekend, so I had to concentrate on the lower leagues. My NAP didn't put up much of a fight so that leaves my record as 10 from 14 NAPS. I was so close to going Luton as my NAP, but as so often happens I let the price affect my judgement. I am sure we have all been there. The price influences our decisions, it goes hand in hand with thinking that the bookies know everything. I am more likely to place 100 on a 4/6 shot than on a 5/2 shot even if, in my own mind, I fancy the 5/2 more.
Before I get onto the Football I thought I would share my reality TV bets. This is always a market that i tend to do quite well in. I think it is about spotting an opportunity early on and getting a good price. You can then use the option to sell. I am on various markets and I managed to get £80 on Bullard in I'm a Celebrity at 9/2. I can't see him being beaten at the moment so I am letting it ride for a while. Mel is coming across well and stands a good chance. I also have £30 on Jake Quickenden at 16 to 1 and he is already down to 17 to 2. He came across really well on X Factor and I think he will be a nice guy in camp. This is with a view to a potential lay. I guess that leads us on to the X Factor. I have placed a lot of bets on this market and it has been spaced out throughout the competition. I have a total of £105 on this market and it is spread across a few contestants. If Fleur or Andrea win then I lose the lot. I haven't seen Andrea winning it despite him been favourite all the way through. Fleur has been a shock for me and her odds get lower every week. My original shout from the outset was Ben Haenow £30 at 7 to 1 and he is now 14 to 5. I still think he is in with a good chance of winning it but I panicked a bit and have had a few more bets. My amounts are Ben +£166, Stereo Kicks +£143 and Only the Young +£935. I placed £30 on Only the Young last weekend at 30 to 1 and I think that have a outside chance. The final bet is on Strictly with my money being on Jake Wood. I don't even watch this and placed a bet after watching Gogglebox. He went to 8 to 5 and I was happy with my £50 quid at 2 to 1. However he is now 3 to 1 🙁 serves me right. In summary I would say outside bets and decent chances are with Jake Quickenden in I'm a celebrity and Only The Young on X Factor, back both with a view to lay.
Now on to the football. Premier League this Saturday sees a few tasty encounters and some potential decent priced teams. Chelsea and Man City prices are too short and I will be avoiding both these games. Arsenal are a great price at 6/5 (Corals) and Man Utd will be fielding a weakened team due to injuries. Despite Arsenal's poor record against Man Utd recently I can see them getting all three points and I make them this weeks NAP . Another bet to consider is Sunderland at 28 to 10 (365) away to a Leicester side who have done little to convince me they can stay in this league since beating Man Utd. The other three games could all be tight and I will be avoiding them. Although Stoke look reasonable at 8/11 with Paddy to beat Burnley.
Championship – Charlton at home to Millwall, who currently have the worst away form in the league, are a knockout price of 9/5 with Stan James. It could go either way and I would expect both teams to be around 6 to 4 so the price is great value. The Championship sees 2nd against 4th and 1st against 5th, I will be avoiding both games. The 3rd placed team Boro are away to Wigan and after their controversial appointment this week I can see “new manager syndrome” happening. I definitely won't be touching this one but 7 to 4 Wigan (365) seems a better prospect than 15 to 8 (Victor) for Boro, despite their league positions.
League One – Barnsley are a good price away to Chesterfield, who can't buy a win at the moment. 3/1 (365) is a great price for a team unbeaten in 4 and who have played 2 of the top 5 in that time. MK 7/10 at home to Port Vale is incredibly short and I would rather lay at that price than back. Port Vale OR the draw is 13/10 (365).
League Two – Wycombe to get back to winning ways against an out of sorts Cheltenham sees value again at 9/5 (Hills). Again, this is another game that could go either way but the value is there. Exeter 3 to 1 (Boyle Sports) at home to Shrewsbury is a price that leaves me scratching my head. Granted, Shrews are second in the league and have won their last 6 but they have only won 2 of their last 6 away games. The price is good and Exeter may spring an upset. Plymouth away to Mansfield seems solid enough and odds against of 6/4 might be worth considering (Paddy).
I have picked some real big odds games this week and I think I will pool them together to go for a decent win.
£100 Arsenal to beat Man Utd at 6/5 with Coral
£50 Charlton to beat Millwall at 9 to 5 with Stan James
£50 Wycombe to beat Cheltenham at 9 to 5 with Hills
Acca – Sunderland, Charlton, Barnsley, Wycombe, Exeter, Plymouth – Pays over 1000 to 1. 🙂
I will be having trebles, fourfolds, fivefolds and a sixfold totalling 42 bets. If three come in it will provide a small loss. If four come in it pays a fourfold and four trebles. This should see a return of three times the stake. Anymore than this and we are in dream territory. 🙂
I will be having unit stakes of £4 across the board. It sees a total return of around £22495.10 (Bet 365) for a £168 outlay. Bet 365 was the best for overall payout on different markets.
Additional 2 bets added Saturday 1pm.
£50 extra on Arsenal at 6 to 5 with Paddy Power to benefit from £50 back as a free bet if the match ends in a draw.
£50 Double at 7.88 with Bet 365 Wycombe and Charlton