It would be safe to say that my confidence is waning slightly with 3 winning singles bets out of the last 12 bets. We still have a good buffer, with a profit since August of just shy of £1900 but I would be lying if I wrote that I was backing with the same confidence. Each bet I contemplate having I approach with some trepidation. The NAP game was postponed last weekend so I am still 13 from 25 but the other two games went ahead and I came unstuck. It has been quite demoralising, and I am sure a depressing read, turning over losing bets hand over fist. I have wrote before about falling off the horse and getting back on and that is what we must do. However, this time round it seems a bit more painful when you don't have the courage of conviction to go with what you think. Take last Sunday as an example, when I was going to lay Burnley at 1.02, they went on to draw 2-2. 🙁
This weekend sees the FA Cup take place again but with later stages occurring, there are many games taking place in the lower leagues. I will try not to let the previous knocks hinder the bets for this weekend but I make no apologies if the picks seem a little flakier this week. I can assure you that I have still gone into the same extensive detail (if not more) when choosing the teams to back.
Let's do it……………..
FA Cup – An exceptionally difficult set of Saturday fixtures in the FA Cup with every team, with the exception of Derby, being odds against. Derby to beat Reading at home is the only game that might be worth betting on and at 5/6 (Boyle) they are an OK price but I would have liked even money. Reading are no mugs and Derby may have both eyes on the Premiership promotion push, bit of alliteration in the blog this week :-). The Sunday fixtures throw up a similar set of odds with just Arsenal being the only team that is odds on. Arsenal HT FT against Middlesbrough offers up a tasty 5/4 (Victor) and they are favourites to win the tournament and they will be keen to put up a good display. I can't see Middlesbrough overturning another Premiership team this time round. Arsenal are a lot better team than Sunderland and they should see off Middlesbrough comfortably.
The Championship – There are 7 matches in the Championship on Saturday. Forest 21/20 (SkyBet) away to Blackpool should see Forest hit a hat trick of wins. Assombalonga being out for a year is a huge blow to Forest but this may galvanise them further. Forest have a good record against Blackpool and with Blackpool scoring just 7 in their last 9, with no player scoring more than once, it should be a victory for Forest. I am not hugely confident on this game and regular readers will know I prefer backing home teams. There are no other games in this league that stand out as being great bets.
League One – There are 20 out of 24 teams taking part in this league and there are a few teams that are worth looking at. I would have tipped Barnsley but at 7/5 away to Crawley the odds are too short. They will have a new manager in charge and haven't won in 6 away from home but have had some reasonable results. Doncaster 21/20 (Coral) is another one that, had confidence been a little higher, I may have considered backing. They are at home to Yeovil but, despite their recent good win, they don't have the greatest of home records. Walsall are even money (BetFred) to beat Port Vale, and whilst they are formidable away from home they are less so at home. However, I think they should have enough to see off Port Vale. Oldham NAP 17/20 (Paddy Power) at home to a Colchester side who have a defence that you could drive a bus through. This is one of my most confident tips in a while and hopefully it will get my confidence back.
League Two – All this division play games over the course of the weekend, but are there any gems hidden away in League Two this weekend? Plymouth are good value at 13/10 (William Hill) to beat Cambridge but this is another game which sees confidence shot. The final game I will look at this weekend is Southend 3/5 (Victor) at home to Accrington. It is a game which I begrudge backing due to the price, but I see it as a good bet so will place it in an accumulator without actually having it as a single.
Forest £25 – 21/20 SkyBet
Walsall £50 – Evens BetFred
Oldham £100 – 17/20 Paddy Power
Arsenal HT FT £75 – 5/4 Victor
Doubles and Trebles £15 on each with 4 bets Walsall, Southend and Oldham (5.81) ToteSport
All the 8 teams above (minus Arsenal HT FT) in bold, 37 bets @ 50p each with sixfolds, sevenfolds and eightfold (228.85) William Hill.