Monthly Archives: February 2015

Another week goes by and another loss occurred.  NAP's are 13 from 26 and a £159.75 loss last weekend, which depressingly is an improvement on recent weeks.  At least we are heading in the right direction.  Since I started the blog I have made 185 bets in total, this includes singles and accumulators.  In all these bets I have had 69 winning bets and 116 losing bets.  This looks grim but I am still £1740.14 in profit.  On a singles front I have had 121 bets and 58 winning bets, the majority of these have been even money or better so should yield a return.  After looking at these statistics I may look to include some lower prices in my accumulators.  I am still looking for value bets and won't be backing anything too short.  The recent run of 4 winning singles bets in the last 18 has decimated the profit but hopefully this weekend we will see a change in fortune.  Let's take a look at this weekend's up and coming fixtures……

Premier League – I do like backing teams when they have got a new manager, but even I can't bring myself to back Aston Villa, despite their 7/4 (BetFred) price.  I think they may just have enough to edge past Stoke in a low scoring encounter.  A Man City and Chelsea double pays a ridiculous 1.56 (PaddyPower) so I can't justify touching the singles or doubles.  Man Utd are away to Swansea, and both teams are finding it difficult to win with conviction.  Man Utd are 21/20 (PaddyPower), but again I think this price is too low, despite Man Utd being the best form team over the last 15 games .  Tottenham 5/6 (Ladbrokes) are at home to West Ham on the Sunday and this is the only game that I will be placing money on in The Premiership this weekend.  Tottenham are in good form in the league and Harry Kane is on fire.  Big Sam is under the cosh and has a few injury worries.  I know that Spurs have just played in the Europa League and they don't always perform as well as they should.  They have won 4 and Lost 4 after a midweek Europa League game this season, enough justification to not doubt the fact that Spurs should get a victory.

The Championship – The only team I am going to be backing in The Championship are Ipswich NAP 23/20 (William Hill) at home to Reading.  Ipswich have won their last two games and Reading have lost them.  Reading are a slight bogey team for Ipswich but superstitions can go out of the window and I prefer to be backing the team that boast the best home record in the division.  Reading have a few injury worries.  Ipswich have got Luke Varney on loan and they will be hoping he can score plenty of goals for them, despite his record not being prolific.

League One – My fingers were badly burnt last week with Oldham, who were my NAP, going down at home to Colchester.  This week I will be backing against Colchester again and backing high flying Bristol City 21/20 (Victor) to win away from home.  Colchester are the worst team I have seen this season in this division.  They have just edged past Gillingham in the dreadful team stakes.  They might only just edge it but I fancy Bristol City to take all 3 points.

League Two – So far just one team from each League.  Will the unpredictability, but great prices, of League Two offer us any gems?  Northampton 5/4 (William Hill) are at home to York and this is the only jewel I have unearthed in this division.  York won their last game and Northampton haven't won in 2 but the odds are good enough to take a punt on them getting back on track.

I haven't consciously picked just one team from each league but hopefully the four teams I have picked will be lucrative!  It is a very difficult week to find value this week.  A lot of teams are odds on as bottom teams play top.

MY BETS

Ipswich £100 – William Hill 23/20

Bristol City £75 – Victor 21/20

Northampton £50 – William Hill 5/4

Tottenham £75 – Ladbrokes 5/6

Ipswich and Bristol City Double £50 (4.31 Victor)

4 trebles at £10 each and a fourfold at £10 (18.12 Victor)

All the best.  Good Luck. 🙂

It would be safe to say that my confidence is waning slightly with 3 winning singles bets out of the last 12 bets.  We still have a good buffer, with a profit since August of just shy of £1900 but I would be lying if I wrote that I was backing with the same confidence.  Each bet I contemplate having I approach with some trepidation.  The NAP game was postponed last weekend so I am still 13 from 25 but the other two games went ahead and I came unstuck.  It has been quite demoralising, and I am sure a depressing read, turning over losing bets hand over fist.  I have wrote before about falling off the horse and getting back on and that is what we must do.  However, this time round it seems a bit more painful when you don't have the courage of conviction to go with what you think.  Take last Sunday as an example, when I was going to lay Burnley at 1.02, they went on to draw 2-2. 🙁

This weekend sees the FA Cup take place again but with later stages occurring, there are many games taking place in the lower leagues.  I will try not to let the previous knocks hinder the bets for this weekend but I make no apologies if the picks seem a little flakier this week.  I can assure you that I have still gone into the same extensive detail (if not more) when choosing the teams to back.

Let's do it……………..

FA Cup – An exceptionally difficult set of Saturday fixtures in the FA Cup with every team, with the exception of Derby, being odds against.  Derby to beat Reading at home is the only game that might be worth betting on and at 5/6 (Boyle) they are an OK  price but I would have liked even money.  Reading are no mugs and Derby may have both eyes on the Premiership promotion push, bit of alliteration in the blog this week :-).  The Sunday fixtures throw up a similar set of odds with just Arsenal being the only team that is odds on.  Arsenal HT FT against Middlesbrough offers up a tasty 5/4 (Victor) and they are favourites to win the tournament and they will be keen to put up a good display.  I can't see Middlesbrough overturning another Premiership team this time round.  Arsenal are a lot better team than Sunderland and they should see off Middlesbrough comfortably.

The Championship – There are 7 matches in the Championship on Saturday. Forest 21/20 (SkyBet) away to Blackpool should see Forest hit a hat trick of wins.  Assombalonga being out for a year is a huge blow to Forest but this may galvanise them further.  Forest have a good record against Blackpool and with Blackpool scoring just 7 in their last 9, with no player scoring more than once, it should be a victory for Forest.  I am not hugely confident on this game and regular readers will know I prefer backing home teams.  There are no other games in this league that stand out as being great bets.

League One – There are 20 out of 24 teams taking part in this league and there are a few teams that are worth looking at.  I would have tipped Barnsley but at 7/5 away to Crawley the odds are too short.  They will have a new manager in charge and haven't won in 6 away from home but have had some reasonable results.  Doncaster 21/20 (Coral) is another one that, had confidence been a little higher, I may have considered backing.  They are at home to Yeovil but, despite their recent good win, they don't have the greatest of home records.  Walsall are even money (BetFred) to beat Port Vale, and whilst they are formidable away from home they are less so at home.  However, I think they should have enough to see off Port Vale.  Oldham NAP 17/20 (Paddy Power) at home to a Colchester side who have a defence that you could drive a bus through.  This is one of my most confident tips in a while and hopefully it will get my confidence back.

League Two – All this division play games over the course of the weekend, but are there any gems hidden away in League Two this weekend?  Plymouth are good value at 13/10 (William Hill) to beat Cambridge but this is another game which sees confidence shot.  The final game I will look at this weekend is Southend 3/5 (Victor) at home to Accrington.  It is a game which I begrudge backing due to the price, but I see it as a good bet so will place it in an accumulator without actually having it as a single.

MY BETS

Forest £25 – 21/20 SkyBet

Walsall £50 – Evens BetFred

Oldham £100 – 17/20 Paddy Power

Arsenal HT FT £75 – 5/4 Victor

Doubles and Trebles £15 on each with 4 bets Walsall, Southend and Oldham (5.81) ToteSport

All the 8 teams above (minus Arsenal HT FT) in bold, 37 bets @ 50p each with sixfolds, sevenfolds and eightfold (228.85) William Hill.

GOOD LUCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

13 from 26 NAPS, £307.50 down, just one success story last week but still £2000 in profit since August.  That should be enough to maintain the faith.  If you are still reading then hopefully I can get back on track and pick some winners this week.  I don't think there is any point in dwelling on last week so let's get cracking and get straight into it.

Premier League – A couple of tasty derbies with the away team being favourite in both.  As always derbies are notoriously difficult to predict, with emotions running high in the stands and on the pitch.  Chelsea and Man City are clear stand out picks but at odds of 1.63 for the double I can't possibly advocate a bet on it.  I can see plenty of goals in The Premier League this weekend, although I can't predict exactly where they are going to come from.

The Championship – Well, I am starting to doubt my confidence after the loss last week, as I can't see anything I fancy in The Championship either.  Middlesbrough and Norwich are both heavily odds on and the double on this only pays 1.81.  Combined with the double in The Premier League it only pays 2.95 (Ladbrokes), for a fourfold that is very skinny odds.

League One – Top Vs Second with MK Dons at home to Bristol City and an opportunity for the Dons to go top.  Rochdale NAP at home to beat Leyton Orient is the first game that I am going to tip this week.  Rochdale at 7/5 (Victor) is a good price against a team who are struggling for victories in their last 10.  The only victories Orient have mustered up recently are against teams in the bottom 5.  This is a great opportunity for Rochdale to get into the play offs so they will be going all out.  Rochdale are better away from home and their Home record isn't amazing, but the woeful away record of Leyton Orient counter balances it.  The price is what is influencing the bet here and I would like to think Rochdale will not disappoint.  The best price of the day comes  with Scunthorpe (9/5 SkyBet) to beat Oldham at home.  Despite being 17th, Scunthorpe are on a good run of form and they will be looking to extend that against an Oldham team that have shipped 20 goals in the last 10 games, alternatively Scunthorpe have scored 20 in their last 10.  As well as top Vs second there is also a bottom of the table clash with 24th Vs 22nd.  Crawley are worth a mention at 9/2 (Bet 365) but with the worst recent away form in the league, I wouldn't be betting with any huge confidence.

League Two – Regular readers will know that I like backing home teams, but in League Two I can't really see past the away teams.  Wycombe, Burton and Luton are teams who stand a chance away from home.  Portsmouth are at home to bottom club Hartlepool but at odds on there is no justification to back Pompey.  Tranmere are a home team that I do fancy and they are on a good run.  They are 23/20 (Victor) against Carlisle.  They are one of the form teams at home and Carlisle are struggling to get points.

MY BETS

Rochdale Vs Leyton Orient – £100 Rochdale 7/5 (BetVictor)

Scunthorpe Vs Oldham – £50 Scunthorpe 9/5 (SkyBet)

Tranmere Vs Carlisle – £75 Tranmere 23/20 (BetVictor)

Doubles and Trebles (14.45 BetVictor) on the above 3 games. 4 bets @ £12.50.

Good Luck, all the best. 🙂