Not the double bonanza weekend that I was hoping for. The two Premier League teams I picked were the saving graces. I also backed Villa when they went one nil down but I haven't included this on the betting spreadsheet (all about the transparency). The NAPS are 11 from 17 too as they ended up drawing nil nil last weekend. Accrington also drew at a cracking price of 11/5, hindsight might suggest Accrington and draw was the one to back. Scunthorpe were winning at HT and ended up drawing. The only defeat was MK Dons, who lost to a team that fielded an ineligible player and may get reinstated to the FA Cup, won't make a difference to my bet though. Not too disastrous and something to build upon. Laying some of my I'm a Celebrity bet proved savvy as Carl pipped Jake to the Crown. My X Factor bet looks doomed with Fleur now 2 to 5 odds on favourite. So to this weeks football………….
Premier League – 55/20 for Burnley Draw No Bet (William Hill) or 17/4 for the win (Victor) has to be the more sensible option, rather than backing Southampton to win at 1.8 (Stan James). Burnley have lost one in five and Southampton have lost the last 3. The only issue is that Burnley have had some easy games in the last 5 whilst Southampton have played 3 of the top 6. They will be wanting to bounce back but I would rather be on Burnley at the value price then on Southampton. The only other notable mention in the Premier League is Manchester United to beat a team that just can't seem to make any strides, Liverpool. What makes this game even better to back on is the fact Bet 365 are offering the in play special. Bet up to £50 pre match and they give you a FREE £50 in running. You use your own money and if it loses they give it you back. One of the only offers like this with no strings attached. It isn't given back as a free bet but actual cash. You can withdraw it straight away if you wish. I will be having Man Utd to win with my own money and a speculative first goal scorer around 10 to 1 for my in play bet. The price at Bet 365 for Man Utd (4/5) is only 0.03 worse than William Hill. Just as I was about to post the blog another superb offer fell at my lap. Paddy are offering money back as a free bet if the game ends in a draw. This is on W/D/W market. I will be having another £50 on Man Utd with Paddy at 4/5 also.
http://www.bet365.com/extra/promotions/soccer/premier-league-in-play-bet-offer/?resizewindow=1&lng=1&bet=1
The Championship – With little to go at in The Premier League we turn our attentions to The Championship. Norwich and Bournemouth are the only teams at home that are odds on this week. This should tell us that picking a winner will be tough. It also tells us that there may be some bargains to be found. Sadly I think it is the former and not the latter. The one match then does look a good bet and price is Sheffield Wednesday to beat a down trodden Wolves team. Sheffield Wednesday are pretty much 13 to 10 across the board. However, the term bogey team has never been so apt. In the last 22 games against Wolves, Wednesday have won only 1. Wolves have won 5 of the last 8 against Wednesday and Wednesday haven't scored a goal in the last three. It would be unwise not to pay attention to things like this, look at Chelsea's poor record at St. James' Park. Should they be included in this weeks picks? Hmmmmmm?
League One – Oldham 4/5 is a little shorter odds than I normally like but it is the first game that really shouts out at me. I am making this game my NAP for this week. Whilst Oldham lost their last game to Doncaster they are performing well and will want to remain in the top 6. Their opponents are Yeovil and they are certainly not pulling up ny trees. I haven't got anything against them, after backing against them to lower league opposition last weekend too, but I can't see anything except an Oldham victory.
League Two – Usually by this point in the blog I have picked out quite a few games and teams to get our teeth into. On this occasion I have found it more difficult to find any value with confidence. Let us see what League Two brings. Well, only Burton are odds on at home so let's hope there is value here and not another tough one. A tasty little prospect is Dagenham and Redbridge to beat Tranmere at home. Dagenham are over 2 to 1, 21/10 (Bet 365) will be a price I will be jumping on. Dagenham looking for a third league win on the bounce and Tranmere only six points from a possible thirty. Exeter and Carlisle promises to be a game with goals and over 2.5 goals at Bet 365 at even money might be a sensible bet here. Combining it with an exeter win pays 24 to 10 at Stan James. Whilst I think this could very much happen I am not convinced it offers the best of value. A straight Exeter victory is 2.25 at Victor. Oxford at 17 to 10 (Bet 365) at home to Bury is also another tasty fixture that might be worth a punt.
MY BETS
Man Utd to win £50 at 4 to 5 (Bet 365) and £50 at 4 to 5 (Paddy Power) with money back as free bet for a draw
Sheffield Wednesday to win £25 at 13 to 10 (Bet 365)
Oldham to win £100 at 4 to 5 (Bet 365)
Dagenham to win £75 at 21/10 (Bet 365)
Exeter Vs Carlisle Over 2.5 goals £25 at evens (Bet 365)
Oxford to win £25 at 17 to 10 (Bet 365)
Oldham and Dagenham Double to win £50 at 5.58 (Bet 365)
After my nearly £3000 sixfold and accas a couple of weeks ago it puts me in a situation. It is similar to always having the same lottery numbers. The one week you don't put them on they come in. I am dropping the trebles this week and just going for the 22 bets. I will be placing stakes of £3 on all the above 6. Fourfolds, Fivefolds and Sixfold. The sixfold pays odds of 124.74 to 1. for £66 it returns £2560.04. If four results come in, only 4 of the 15 permutations make a loss (a very small one at that). Happy Days for 5 and over the moon (again) for 6.
GOOD LUCK.
